TXPS RANKINGS EXPLANATION
Your step by step guide
Alright, every year we say we’re going to wait until the non-district slate concludes to post rankings, so that there’s enough data points on these teams to make at least our best guess as to where they fall relative to one another. Well folks, that time has arrived. I’m sure many of you are here, wanting an explanation as to why your respective team isn’t ranked number 1. Patience please, we’ll get there (or you can just skip down to it now, no one’s stopping you). If you want the methodology behind how we created this, we sat down in a meeting, compared teams schedules to one another, and just had a discussion that blended analytics with the eye test. There are some teams that you just know have to be in certain spots (i.e. Parish Episcopal), but things usually get dicey once you get into that 4-10 range. We placed a lot of emphasis on common opponents, because quite frankly, thats the best (and only) quantitative tool we have to use at the moment. Now, I am saying right now that I understand the limitations of the transitive property as it is applied to sports. But, yet again since these teams have not played each other yet, it’s the best we have as of now. So, without further ado, let’s analyze.
Division I
Most of what we have here is pretty chalk. Parish has to go #1 for obvious reasons. St. Thomas, in my opinion is a clear #2, not just in DI, but in all of Private School. ESD and EHS could make claims for that spot, but STH seems to be the front runner. Prestonwood and Antonian follow at 3 and 4, and these two could honeslty be flipped with little difference in my opinion. We cannot extrapolate a ton from the teams they’ve beanten up to this point, and things will become more clear as we move into district. Both Central and Concordia Lutheran, at 5 and 6, are in similar spots. They’ve had good starts to the season, but have bost lost convincingly to DII opponents. Now comes the curious case of Nolan and Lynch. 1-5 and 1-4 respectively, both teams are in tough spots with district approaching. Lynch actually just beat Nolan 41-38, in a contest that wasn’t technically a district game (still not sure what the deal was there). Regardless, Nolan will get a great opprotunity to move up when they catch Lynch again 10/28. Rounding out the 9 and 10 spots are TCA and SPX. TCA is 1-5, but is showing signs of life after knocking off SCS this past Friday. SPX is 2-3, and doesn’t look to be in a prime spot after being routed 40-6 by DII Bishop Dunne. While there is certainly time time to turn their season around, it will need to be done quickly.
Division II
DII is the most interesting division to analyze in my opinon. 1-3 was incredibly hard to put in order for us. You can make a solid case for any of these teams to be #1. Regents secures that spot as of now, because of the undefeated record, paired with the dominance they’ve displayed over teams thus far. Liberty has also well exceeded expecatations, and I would not be surpirsed to see them take over that top spot at some point this season. FWC also had that giant win against DC last week, and have not faltered yet in non district. Notice here #2 and #3 play each other this Friday (10/7) so something will have to give. Now, FBCA at #4 is not something I expected to be writing halfway through the season. But the Eagles have had a rougher than expected start. Granted, they have played one of the toughest non district slates in the state, but with losses to DC and SJS, we have to keep them outside of the top 3 for now. However, in a tradtionally weak District 4, expect FBCA to gain some ground, if they can best TWCA, SBS and LSA. FWAS, although talented, has also undershot expectations and find themselves at #5. They desperately need to knock off Midland Christian and SCS to start district, because they won’t get any favors against FWC and Liberty to close the year. The last thing I really want to hit on is the District II teams making up the 7-9 spots. I’m going to be fully transparent here. We initially had GCS at 7 above Faith, and I (the GCS alumni) told Walker to move them below Faith. Let me explain. Grace’s 5-0 start is nothing short of fantastic for a program that looked dead in the water one short year ago. The problem is we know nothing about this team based on their opponents to this point. The three UIL teams they have faced are a combined 3-18, and an 11 point win against DIII Brook Hill (who Faith beat by 40) isn’t necessarily deserving of a top 5 ranking. Grace has a perfect opprotunity to move up with a game against Faith this Friday, but until then, this is how the rankings fall. With Faith and Dunne flanking them at 7 and 9, I think District 2 is comprised of 3 teams that are certianly dark horses to make a playoff run.
Division III/IV
This is pretty cut and dry. The only real question is, will DC fans say they should be ranked higher than #1? Vegas has the odds at yes -230. In all seriousness, DC would be top 3 in both DI and DII, and are going to decimate every opponent they run up against in district play. Now, TCS Lubbock intrigues me greatly. Last years state runner up is 3-2 so far, but played DII #2 Liberty within 10 points at ACU on 9/9. With starpower such as Marcus Ramon-Edwards on their side, they might be the only challenge to DC this season. Following them is another Lubbock squad, Lubbock Christian, who is the first of 3 DIV teams on this ranking. With Bax Townsend at the helm, LC has to be the favorite as of now to take the DIV title home to West Texas. To wrap up I’ll briefly discuss #6 and #7. I think Holy Cross is incredibly underrated to start the year, and more people need to have eyes on Gibby Alvarado and Rudy Rodriguez. Dallas Covanent has also quietly had an undefeated start to the year, with huge wins against FBA and Trinity Willow Park in consecutive weeks. At the end of the day, DIII and DIV are going to have some interesting storylines to follow as the season progresses towards playoffs.
SPC
First of all, shout out to St. Johns man. I admittedly was not super high on the Mavs coming into the season, and they have proceeded to prove me wrong and then some. On the shoulders of Cole Allen and Stephen Gill, SJS is 5-1 heading into a massive game against EHS this Friday 10/7. Don’t be surprised if the Knights find a way to knock off #2 in that spot. Moving on, #1 and #2 are very close, and are separated only because ESD just beat EHS by 4 last week (yes I know it was controversial etc etc but the score is the score). Both of these teams have a crazy amount of talent, and are without a doubt the top 2 teams in the division. We see our first 3a team at #4 with John Cooper, who has been on a tear since the week one slip up to TWCA. Behind Vaughn Mckeever, Dean Calhoun, Kieler Sullivan and Alonso Barranchia, the Dragons are far and away the favorites to repeat in 3a. The last thing I’ll really touch on is #5 and #6. Kinkaid is 3-3, and in a tough spot. Micah Bell is obviously fantastic, and Miles Roeder contributes solid snaps for the Falcons, but with a big question mark at QB, they are relatively one dimensional. TVS at #6 is also one to watch. They are John Cooper’s only real competition in 3a, and ’25 QB Gavin Parkhurst is the real deal. They will most likely be 5-0 in district when they roll into The Woodlands, which will be the game of the year in SPC 3a
Top 10 Overall
Yet again, Parish at number one needs zero explanation. Please feel free to DM me on twitter if you’re in a state of hysteria and think this is unwarranted. I think, as of now, STH has proven with their resume that they deserve to be #2, above ESD and ESH. You can make arguments either way, but I genuinely think they are the second best team in the land. ESD and ESH are the cream of the crop in SPC, and are well deserving of their #3 and #4 rankings. Now, Regents at #5 might seem low for the best DII team at the moment. I think them, Liberty and FWC all have opprotunities to move up based on how they preform. Regents might be a little bit cornered here, becuase their schedule is pretty weak until they run into SMCA 11/4. Regardless, this will all shake itself out in the end. Now, Jordan Green, I know you said you wanted FWC 2nd in the overall rankings, best I can do is 8th. Y’all beat Liberty this Friday, you get moved up. Sound fair? I also have a strong feeling that DC is somehow going to be upset with their ranking on this list as well. So please DC, let me know where you think you should be.
Conclusion
Just to be clear, these are just our thoughts as to how teams stand as of now. They are not an end all be all ranking, and they will fluctuate (probably pretty heavily) as the weeks go on. For now, look at the rankings, talk about them, disagree with them, and even tell us how you feel about them. Just don’t take this as the most important thing on the planet right now. If your team continues to win, you’ll move up the list. Pretty simple solution if you ask me.
And no, your ranking does not entitle you to any of my personal or real property.
